AI Disruption: Investigating the Past to Peer Into the Future

Artificial intelligence is the great disruptor of our time, sparking widespread and understandable fear about the future of work. Will AI make human jobs obsolete? It’s a valid question, but we’ve faced seismic shifts before. The printing press, the steam engine, agricultural mechanization, and the personal computer were all revolutionary technologies that reshaped society. 

While I recognize the anxiety surrounding AI, I’m hopeful that we are experiencing the latest evolution in how the world works, not an apocalyptic event. After all, the purpose of technology has always been to take a task that requires human effort and make it faster, if not automate it entirely. History shows that while technological disruption eliminates some jobs, it consistently reshapes the economy, paving the way for new industries and unforeseen opportunities.

Our journey into the past begins with a disruption that mirrors our own information age: the printing press. Before its invention, producing a book was a monumental effort. It could take a team of 45 scribes nearly two years to hand-copy just 200 manuscripts. After the printing press, that same number of people could produce an astonishing 4,800 books in the same time frame. While the profession of the scribe became obsolete, the explosion of accessible information created entirely new markets. Suddenly, society needed editors, typesetters, illustrators, proofreaders, and book merchants. The bookstore was born, and with it, a new class of shopkeepers who made their living from the mass production of knowledge.

If the printing press revolutionized information, agricultural mechanization fundamentally reshaped society itself. In 1790, over 80% of the American workforce was involved in agriculture; today, that figure is less than 2%. Early farmers produced just enough to feed their families with a small surplus for the market. Technology changed everything. Metal plows replaced wood, mechanical reapers automated the harvest, and steam power and modern fertilizers sent yields soaring. Corn, which once yielded 15-20 bushels per acre, now produces over 170. This was a slow-moving disruption, unfolding over centuries, but it proves that an entire way of life can be automated while society adapts and grows in new directions.

Not every disruption follows a simple path of replacement. Sometimes, automation leads to surprising outcomes, as was the case with the automated teller machine (ATM). When ATMs were introduced, the number of bank tellers initially fell by 38%. However, the cost savings from automation allowed banks to open more branches. This expansion led to a net increase in the number of tellers compared to pre-ATM days. Crucially, their roles evolved. Freed from handling simple transactions, tellers became more focused on customer relationships, sales, and service. This shift not only increased their value to the business but also led to higher wages. While the subsequent rise of internet banking has altered the landscape again, the ATM era demonstrates how automation can elevate human roles from transactional to relational.

This pattern of displacement and creation accelerated dramatically with the digital wave of the late 20th century. The internet revolution led to a swift decline in roles like travel agents and classified ad staff, yet it simultaneously sparked the creation of entirely new professions in web development, digital marketing, and IT support. The e-commerce boom that followed brought a different kind of change. While it caused significant job losses in traditional retail, it fueled explosive growth in warehousing, logistics, and the “creator economy”—a field that barely existed a decade prior. These waves demonstrate that even when disruption feels painful, it ultimately creates new ecosystems of employment.

This same dynamic didn’t just happen on farms or in factories; it transformed the white-collar office with the advent of the spreadsheet. Software like VisiCalc and Microsoft Excel automated tasks that once required teams of clerks and bookkeepers. It’s estimated that spreadsheet software displaced hundreds of thousands of clerical workers in the U.S. alone. However, this disruption fueled a surge in demand for employees with digital literacy and analytical skills. The labor market shifted from rewarding repetitive tasks to valuing knowledge-based work, creating new opportunities in data analysis and IT.

And what about the factory floor, where robots are increasingly taking the place of human workers? A fascinating study in Japan found that regions with greater adoption of robots experienced higher productivity and employment growth. While robots took over certain tasks, overall employment levels increased, while the average number of hours worked per person decreased. This suggests robots can function as work-sharing and time-saving tools, improving work-life balance while boosting economic output.

We don’t have a crystal ball to see the exact future AI will create. However, history provides a clear and powerful roadmap. From scribes to editors, from farmers to factory workers, and from clerks to data analysts, humanity has shown itself to be not only resilient but remarkably creative. 

Each wave of disruptive technology has pushed us to adapt, learn new skills, and invent new forms of value. If we focus on navigating this transition with foresight and a commitment to helping people adapt, we can ensure the future of work is not one of scarcity, but one of wonderful new possibilities.

Sebastian Langenberg

Account Executive